What 13 major BTC crashes tell us about what's next [Market Analysis]

Market commentary

After a -10% Bitcoin crash day, history shows a clear pattern: short-term bounce is common — but second dips happen 92% of the time. Here’s what the data says.

After the last post, many of you wondered:

"What does BTC usually do after a move like this?"

Nobody can fully predict the future, but we can look for similar historical events and see what happened next.

For reference: we'll use Binance Futures data for the purposes of this research post.

Futures are useful here because liquidation-driven moves often show up clearly in perp data.

What Happened

First, let's see what happened.

February 5 was a classic "capitulation day":

A large daily drop, heavy intraday selling, a close near the day's low, and a major activity spike.

Historical Comparisons

There were at least 5 similar historical events in the Bitcoin Futures data.

These were:

2020-03-12 (COVID crash)
2022-01-21
2022-05-09
2022-06-13
2022-11-09 (FTX collapse)

The image below maps these analogs (orange) versus all -10%+ days (blue) and highlights Feb 5 (green).

What 13 major BTC crashes tell us about what's next [Market Analysis], image 1

For robustness, we'll also look at a broader sample of 13 historical days where the close-to-close daily return was lower than -10%.

We need a full 30-day window after each event for proper analysis.

What 13 major BTC crashes tell us about what's next [Market Analysis], image 2

Key Finding: Short-Term Bounces Are Common

One of the main insights:

A short-term bounce is common.

Across those 13 crash days with -10%+ drops, the median next-day return is +2.8% (mean +3.7%).

So, mean reversion often happens.

But Second Dips Are Even More Likely

The "second dip" base rate is even higher.

Within the next 30 days after a -10% crash day, BTC traded below the crash-day low at least once in 92% of cases (12/13).

That's why crash-day mean reversion can be profitable but dangerous:

The market often bounces first, then retests (and sometimes breaks) the low later.

What 13 major BTC crashes tell us about what's next [Market Analysis], image 3

The Counterintuitive Reality

This seems counterintuitive:

"If a rollback is likely, how can the market usually go lower?"

The distribution of outcomes after the crash is two-sided:

BTC can rebound sharply and still print a lower low inside the next week/month.

A "risk/opportunity map" makes this obvious:

Many crash episodes include both +5% to +15% upside and -5% to -15% downside within the same week.

February 6: The V-Bounce

One more nuance:

Feb 6 was a strong V-bounce.

In the Binance Futures dataset, the pattern "-10% crash day + next day ≥ +5%" happened only 4 times historically.

In those cases, the probability of a deep second leg (5% below the crash low) fell to 25% (1/4), but big pullbacks from the bounce were still common (-11% to -24% within 30 days).

What 13 major BTC crashes tell us about what's next [Market Analysis], image 4

What This Means for You

We've seen numerous analyses predicting both outcomes over the last few days.

However, the statistical evidence doesn't provide a clear answer.

Expect a bounce — and respect the high retest/volatility risk.

If You:

Trade the rebound, do so with a plan for tails.

Missed the rebound, chasing is usually worse than waiting for pullbacks.

Want to stop guessing and automate the whole process with a:

Time-tested
Proven
Fully algorithmic approach

It's as easy as signing up with Algocrat AI.

Sign Up Here

Best,
The Algocrat AI Team

Published on Feb 18, 2026

Share this article

Like what you see?

Join our Telegram group

Apply Now

Nature of Business Disclaimer

Algocrat.ai operates as a technology provider offering Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) solutions for automated trading strategies. We do not provide financial or investment advice, portfolio management, brokerage services, or act as a financial intermediary. Users retain full control over their trading accounts and funds, and all trading activities are conducted at their own discretion and risk.

Earnings & Risk Disclaimer

Trading digital currencies on margin has large potential rewards but also carries a high level of risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them to invest in the digital currencies markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE THE RESULTS SHOWN IN AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, THESE RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, BECAUSE THESE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THESE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE BEING SHOWN.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY PERSON WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Be warned that there is a possibility to lose real money if traded on a real money account, and the owners of algocrat.ai can NOT be held accountable for any losses that may occur including from any potential software bugs/glitches or malfunctions.

Algocrat.ai and its owners assume no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials. They do not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. Algocrat.ai and its owners shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials.

We assume that you are legally permitted to purchase and use our products. Making sure that you are following the global and local laws and legislations is your responsibility. We cannot be held responsible for any damages or lawsuit against you due to such regulations.

All information on this website or any software and or guide purchased from this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, do not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibility for your actions, trades, profit, or loss, and agree to hold the owner of algocrat.ai and any authorized distributors of this information harmless in any ways. All rights reserved. The use of this website and or its contents constitutes acceptance of our disclaimer.